E-MAIL JOE    PRINT    2012 COLUMNS    ARCHIVES    SEARCH ARCHIVES
THE BATTLE OF THE GULF AIRLINES
By Joe Brancatelli
October 10, 2012 --If you think the 2012 election cycle is a cesspool of lies, nasty attacks, and double dealings, you haven't been paying attention to the airline business, where three newish players based in the Persian-Arab Gulf are rising to compete against and ally with better-known, more-established global airline brands.

Ten days ago, the media-obsessed chief executive of Doha-based Qatar Airways unequivocally denied that his 15-year-old airline would join the Oneworld Alliance fronted by American Airlines and British Airways.

"No, we will not" join Oneworld, Akbar al-Baker told Reuters. "It's all rumors."

But at a media event on Monday in New York specifically called to welcome Qatar Airways to Oneworld, al-Baker had an Etch A Sketch moment. "We are proud to have been invited to join Oneworld," he explained. "Alliances are playing an increasingly important role in the airline industry today."

Just hours before Monday's Oneworld camel-and-pony show, Air France and its KLM subsidiary announced that they would code-share with Etihad Airways of Abu Dhabi and Air Berlin, a German carrier now 29 percent owned by Etihad. What's weird about that? Air France and KLM are founding partners of the SkyTeam Alliance. Air Berlin is in Oneworld, the soon-to-be-home of Qatar Airways.

Or consider this recent attack by Christoph Franz, chief executive of Germany's mammoth Lufthansa Group. Assessing the rise of Qatar, Etihad, and Emirates Airline of Dubai, Franz dismissed the region as a "sandpit with money." He also claimed the carriers were state-owned, subsidized, paid little or no taxes, and survived on cheap labor.

Then there's the tiff between Air Canada and Emirates and Etihad. The Canadian flag carrier, partners with Lufthansa and United Airlines in the Star Alliance, pressured the Canadian government not to give the Gulf airlines more landing rights. The United Arab Emirates, which encompasses Dubai and Abu Dhabi, responded by ordering Canadian troops out of Dubai's Camp Mirage, an important way station between Canada and Afghanistan.

But wait, there's more. Last month, Qantas ended its 17-year-old arrangement with Oneworld partner British Airways to share flights and revenue on the so-called Kangaroo Routes between Australia and Britain. Qantas' new partner? Emirates, which had been recruited by the Australian government several years ago to combat Qantas' near-monopoly on some Down Under routes. Qantas' main domestic competitor today is Virgin Australia, now 10 percent owned by Etihad.

At this point, you may be wondering why everyone is lying, attacking, and metaphorically jumping from bed to bed with Gulf airlines you've probably never flown and might not even know existed. I can answer your question by directing you to the nearest globe.

Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar can legitimately claim to sit at the crossroads of a world now stitched together by a silk road of airline routes. The three Gulf states are logical airline hubs that can connect North and South America to China and India, where the airline industry is still underdeveloped (China) or in deep financial distress (India). The Gulf is also a decent place to change planes if your ultimate destination is Africa, a region largely shunned by U.S. carriers. The Gulf states are also well positioned geographically to connect Europe with Australia and Asia.

If you prefer it by the numbers, consider these from Bill Swelbar of MIT: Doha, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi are within 4,600 miles (or an eight-hour flight) of 86 percent of the world's population and 63 percent of its gross domestic product. And while the "sandpit with money" crack by Lufthansa's Franz was crude, it isn't wrong. The princely states that line the Arab/Persian Gulf are flush with oil revenue and other trading wealth, and there are few locals to make financial demands on the hereditary royal families.

Emirates Airline, founded in 1985, is quick to flash audited financial statements, but it is wholly owned by the government of Dubai, and Dubai is wholly controlled by the ruling al-Maktoum family. Ditto for Abu Dhabi's Etihad, created in a moment of royal pique in 2003. When another carrier stopped flying jets with first-class cabins into Abu Dhabi airport, the ruling al-Nahyah family simply decreed Etihad Airways into existence. Over in Doha, Qatar Airlines is putatively a 50/50 venture between private investors and the Qatari government, which is controlled by the al-Thani family. But a supposed IPO for the airline, originally planned for this year, never materialized. Now it is "five to eight years" away, says Qatar CEO al-Baker.

Armed with felicitous geography and unlimited oil funds and driven by motivated, unfettered ruling families, the three carriers are now global players. Dubai is the world's fourth busiest international airport and Emirates operates 180 aircraft to 120 destinations, including seven U.S. cities and Toronto. Qatar flies 120 aircraft to 70 countries, including Houston, New York, Washington, and Montreal. Etihad flies 66 aircraft to 87 cities, including New York, Chicago, and Toronto.

U.S. and European carriers—and the three alliances they started—first fought the growing strength of the Gulf carriers. And it's not hard to understand why. There's limited interest in so-called O&D (point-to-point) traffic to Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha. The battle is all about connecting travelers, the financial lifeblood of the global alliances. And the more the Gulf carriers expanded, the more they diverted traffic from traditional European hubs such as London, Paris, Amsterdam, and Frankfurt or Asian wayports such as Singapore and Hong Kong.

A Qatar Airways executive told me two years ago that just 15 percent of the airline's U.S.-originating traffic was actually bound for Doha. The rest were transferring to other destinations. Only about a third of Emirates' U.S. customers are actually headed for Dubai. The others change planes at the mammoth Dubai International Airport and head to Asia, Africa, or Australia. Or consider Emirates' route from Newcastle in Northeast England. According to a study released last month, only 25 percent of the customers starting in Newcastle terminate their travel in Dubai. The rest are connecting passengers.

Shifting transfer passengers from traditional European and Asian hubs is why Air Canada and its Star Alliance partners fought so hard to keep the Gulf Carriers from expanding in Canada. And it's why the established alliances have abruptly changed course to welcome the Gulf carriers into full membership or allow its member airlines to cut side deals with Qatar, Etihad, or Emirates.

"If you can't beat them, why not join them?" asked Dominque Patry, vice president of international affairs at Air France-KLM.

But the Gulf carriers also need the alliances and the traditional airlines that they frequently criticize as old, slow, sloppy, and arrogant. If you look at the globe again, you'll see why. Doha, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi are less than 300 miles apart. Only 75 miles separate Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

"Three hubs that close together and with so little [point-to-point] traffic simply can't survive on their own," one U.S. airline executive told me last month. "They need us and the business travelers we can funnel to them. And they are slowly beginning to realize that."

ABOUT JOE BRANCATELLI Joe Brancatelli is a publication consultant, which means that he helps media companies start, fix and reposition newspapers, magazines and Web sites. He's also the former executive editor of Frequent Flyer and has been a consultant to or columnist for more business-travel and leisure-travel publishing operations than he can remember. He started his career as a business journalist and created JoeSentMe in the dark days after 9/11 while he was stranded in a hotel room in San Francisco. He lives on the Hudson River in the tourist town of Cold Spring.

THE FINE PRINT This column is Copyright © 2012 American City Business Journals. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission. JoeSentMe.com is Copyright © 2012 by Joe Brancatelli. All rights reserved.